Ghana miikpɛ hiɛ kɛba kɔɔyɔɔ kɛ hiɛtserɛji-wuji oshara ni yɔɔ hiɛ enyɔ yɛ afi 2026 mli: miibu nuyeli wulu nɛɛ sɛɛ gbɔji kɛ oshara ni eba kɛba lɛ, kɛkɛ ni miito ehe gbɛ kɛha lamɔ ni baanyɛ aba yɛ nudaa be kome nɛɛ nɔŋmɔ mli.
Nyɔŋmɔ kome pɛ ni ho nɛɛ, Ghana miiye awe yɛ nu ni fa kɛ hiɛtserɛmɔ wulu yɛ shikpɔŋ nɛɛ nɔ. Yɛ Juun 28–29, 2026 mli lɛ, nudaa wulu ko kɛ nu-bii ni efa tetsrɛ nɛɛ ba yɛ Greater Accra kɛ Ghana wuoyigbe jara amɛnɔ. Pokusei tamɔ Spintex, Adabraka, Achimota, kɛ Agbogbloshie yaa nu shishi, gbekɛ/gbɛ-wuji tamɔ N1 lɛ anɔ nyɛmɔɔɔ ni atsɔ, ni shiai, tsɔji, kɛ jra-diɔji fɛɛ fite.
Cape Coast, Kumasi kɛ maŋi krokomɛi yɛ Ghana wuoyigbe hu na nu-fa-mɔ nɛɛ yɛ afi nɛɛ nudaa be nɛɛ mli.
Nu-fa-mɔji nɛɛ gbe gbɔmɛi babaoo yɛ maŋi nɛɛ amɛmli. Hiɛ-kɛ-gbeɔji ni abu lɛ kɛɔ kɛɛ afite nii ni damɔ dola millioŋi laifa nɔ, ni akpaɔ gbɛ kɛɛ ebaawo hiɛ lolo kɛ́ awo nibii krokomɛi ni fite yɛ jarayeli kɛ jra-diɔji bibii amɛmli lɛ mli; amɔdɔɔ-nɔ yelɔi lɛ jie GH¢ millioŋ 300 kɛje amɛ Oshara Shika Toorɔ mli kɛha gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ oyai.
Ebaanyɛ efee tamɔ nɔ ni eyeɔ e-he naitɔɔ, shi nakai kɔɔyɔɔ kɛ hiɛtserɛmɔ gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ nɔŋmɔ miitsɔɔ hiɛ-kɛ-gbeɔ oshara ni yɔɔ gbɛ kroko nɔ nɛɛ gbɛ: lamɔ kɛ kɔɔyɔɔ gbiŋmɔ kɛha afi nɛɛ mli be ni shwɛ lɛ. Nudaa wulu ni nɛ yɛ Juun naagbee lɛ daa shi tamɔ nudaa ni akpaɔ gbɛ yɛ nudaa be nɛɛ teŋ yɛ Ghana wuoyigbe. Kɛha afi lɛ mli be ni shwɛ lɛ, Ghana kɛ El Niño ni he miiwa waa baaye nikasemo, nɔ ni blema bɔni efeɔ lɛ efeɔ ni nudaa lɛ shiki kɛjeɔ nɔ ni akpaɔ gbɛ lɛ shishi ni nudaa lɛ gbeɔ naa oyai yɛ be lɛ naagbee.
El Niño Wulu Ko Ni Ama Nɔ Mi
Yɛ afi nɛɛ shishijee mli lɛ, wɔŋma sane nɛɛ kɛtsɔɔ kɛɛ yɛ afii enyɔ ni La Niña kɛ kɔɔyɔɔ ni gbɛɛɛ he ko ho lɛ sɛɛ lɛ, Pacific ŋshɔ lɛ miiia gbɛ kɛba El Niño mli kɛha afi 2026 naagbee kɛba 2027 mli. Yɛ nakai be lɛ mli lɛ, dɔɔmɔ lɛ bɔni eyɔɔ lɛ jeee nɔ ni ama nɔ mi fitsofitso. Jeŋ fɛɛ kɔɔyɔɔ lelɔi amɛgbɛ-tsɔɔmɔji miifee kome yɛ El Niño nɔ nɛɛ he, shi be ni ebaa ba kɛ hewalɛ ni ebaahiɛ yɛ naagbee lɛ bɛ le-mɔ mli. Nakai hetsemɔ lɛ baa agbɛnɛ kɛba nɔmimaa mli.
Yɛ amɛ Jeŋ Fɛɛ Kɔɔyɔɔ Be-kɛ-Be Saajee mli lɛ, Jeŋ Fɛɛ Kɔɔyɔɔ kɛ Hiɛtserɛmɔ Ga-yeli Bɔɔ (WMO) ma nɔ mi kɛɛ El Niño shihilɛi esei kpe yɛ Pacific ŋshɔ lɛ mli ni amɛmiiwa oyai, kɛ El Niño hewalɛji wuji ni akpaɔ gbɛ yɛ Juulai–Sɛptɛmba 2026 mli. Gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ kpotoi babaoo kɛje be-kɛ-be kɔɔyɔɔ lelɔi amɛ-hɛɛ-heji lɛ tsɔɔ kɛɛ ŋshɔ hiɛ dɔɔmɔ miida waa yɛ Pacific teŋ kɛ boklenyigbe nɔ, ni akpaɔ gbɛ kɛɛ be-kɛ-be tsakemɔji lɛ baato 2°C yɛ hei ni akwɛɔ nii a-he waa lɛ amɛmli. WMO klɛŋklɛŋ kɛ kadimɔ wo mli yɛ Juun mli, ni amɛha gbɛ-faŋmɔ 80% kɛɛ El Niño baaba yɛ Juun kɛ Ogɔst 2026 teŋ, ni ebaaya hiɛ kɛba 90% sɛɛ. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ya hiɛ lolo, ni amɛha 63% gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ kɛɛ sane nɛɛ baaba kɛ hewalɛ ni wa waa kɛyaashi Nɔvɛmba 2026–Januari 2027 (kwɛ Mfoni 1). Shihilɛi ni akpaɔ gbɛ lɛ tamɔ blema 1997/98 kɛ 2015/16 Super El Niños lɛ nɔŋmɔ.
Mfoni 1: Mfoni ni tsɔɔ bɔ ni Niño 3.4 ŋshɔ hiɛ dɔɔmɔ tsakeɔ yɛ afi 2026/27 be mli, ni damɔ WMO kɛ NOAA CPC be-kɛ-be kwɛmɔ nɔ. Kaanɔji nɛɛ tsɔɔ be-kɛ-be gbɛ ni ebaaŋɔ, jeee kanyamɔ diŋŋ yɛ nakai be lɛ nɔŋmɔ mli.
Nɔ Ni El Niño Feɔ Kɛha Jeŋ Fɛɛ Kɔɔyɔɔ Kɛ Hiɛtserɛmɔ
El Niño ji ŋshɔ hiɛ dɔɔmɔ be yɛ El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mli, nɔ ni ji jikuruŋ ni ebaaa daa ni tsiɔ ehe (afii enyɔ kɛyaasi kpaanyɔ teŋ) ni damɔ ŋshɔ hiɛ dɔɔmɔ kɛ kɔɔyɔɔ yi-nyɛmɔ tsakemɔji anɔ yɛ Pacific ŋshɔ lɛ nɔ. Yɛ El Niño be mli lɛ, Pacific boklenyigbe kɛ teŋ hiɛ dɔɔ miifa waa fe bɔ ni eyɔɔ lɛ, ni egbaɔ kɔɔyɔɔ kɔ̃ɔmɔ ni bɔni tsirɛɔ nu ni dɔɔ miiya kɔɔyigbe lɛ hewalɛ. Nɛɛ tsakeɔ kɔɔyɔɔ teomɔ kɛ shi-yeli gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ yɛ tropical mli lɛ, ni etsakeɔ nudaa be-kɛ-be gbɛji yɛ jeŋ fɛɛ mli.
Ekaa ni kɔɔyɔɔ gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ lɛ ji nɔ kome ni ekpɛɔ e-he lɛ, Pacific kɔɔyɔɔ gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ nɛɛ kɛ naagba krokomɛi baa. Akɛ nɛɛ tsɔɔmɔ kɛɛ ji teleconnections ni eyeɔ jeŋ fɛɛ nudaa kɛ dɔɔmɔ gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔji anɔ waa yɛ hei srɔtoi anɔ. Bɔ ni efeɔ daa lɛ, El Niño kɛ nu baa South America hei komɛi, United States wuoyigbe, kɛ East Africa. Yɛ Australia, Indonesia, Africa wuoyigbe, kɛ West Africa nɔ̃ Gulf of Guinea wuoyigbe faŋmɔ babaoo lɛ, El Niño kɛ shihilɛ ni gbiŋ baa (kwɛ Mfoni 2). E-kɛ jeŋ fɛɛ dɔɔmɔ hu yawaa, ejaɛ̃ ŋshɔ dɔɔmɔ ni fɛɛ miiya nɔ lɛ miifata kɔɔyɔɔ dɔɔmɔ nɔ. Gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ nɛɛ ye ebua ni blema El Niño wuji lɛ fee afii ni dɔɔ waa yɛ be ni aŋma kɛto mli.
Mfoni 2: Mfoni ni tsɔɔ bɔ ni El Niño eyeɔ jeŋ fɛɛ nudaa nɔ, ni tsɔɔ hei ni naɔ nu babaoo (baatshuru) kɛ hei ni gbiŋɔ (akokɔ-sui) yɛ El Niño eye-nɔ nɛɛ sɛɛ.
Ghana Kɛ El Niño Niyeli Blema Sane
Ghana nudaa be eyeŋ ehe kɛjeɔ Pacific tsakemɔji nɛɛ amɛhe, ni maŋ nɛɛ kɔɔyɔɔ kɛ hiɛtserɛmɔ blema aŋmabi hiɛ El Niño wuji etɛ ni ba lɛ amɛ-paa-ji.
Afi 1982/83 El Niño lɛ kɛ nɔ ni ji Ghana lamɔ kplɛmɔ ni wa fe fɛɛ yɛ ŋmɛnɛ-ŋmɛnɛ be mli ba. Nudaa ba shi yɛ maŋ lɛ mli fɛɛ, ni lamɔ be ni ba nɛɛ kɛ koo-la-mɛmɔ gbɛɛ kpe kɛfite kookoo ngmɔji akpe-akpe hektarji, efite niyenii ngmɔji, ni ekɛ hɔmɔ ba hei komɛi anɔ. Be lɛ mli kaanɔji tsɔɔ kɛɛ ɲɔmɔ nɛɛ jeee afi nudaa diŋŋ pɛ ni ba shi.
Nakai nɔŋmɔ hu, yɛ 1997/98 mli lɛ, El Niño kroko ba, nɔ ni ji ekome yɛ nɔ ni wa fe fɛɛ yɛ jeŋ fɛɛ aŋmabi amɛmli. Sane nɛɛ hu fite West Africa nudaa gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ, ni eye ebua kɛba nudaa ni ba shi yɛ Guinea Coast hei komɛi ni ewo shikpɔŋ nɛɛ hewalɛ-bɛ-mɔ miiti kɛha Pacific lamɔji nɛɛ.
Afi 2015/16 El Niño lɛ, ni wa tamɔ 1997/98 nɔ lɛ, kɛ lamɔ haomi ba Ghana kɛ Côte d’Ivoire, jeŋ fɛɛ kookoo nyɛlɔi wuji enyɔ lɛ amɛnɔ. Maji amɛnikasemoji tsɔɔ 2015/16, kɛ 1982/83 nɔ lɛ, akɛ amɛji lamɔ bei ni wa fe fɛɛ ni aŋma kɛto yɛ Ghana kookoo shikpɔŋ nɛɛ nɔ yɛ afii nyɔŋmai etɛ ni ho lɛ mli, ni nudaa ba shi ni dɔɔmɔ hu ya hiɛ, ni eha ngmɔ-nii amɛ-nu-hɔmɔ ya hiɛ waa fe bɔ ni alee.
Yɛ shihilɛi etɛ nɛɛ fɛɛ mli lɛ, nɔ kome ni yɔɔ mli ji kɛɛ nudaa be lɛ gbɔɔ alo ejiɔ kuku, ni eyeɔ ngmɔ-dɔɔmɔ be fã ni ji enyɔ lɛ nɔ waa — be ni ngmɔ-nii miihao waa kɛ́ nu bɛ lɛ.
Nɔ Ni Akpaɔ Gbɛ Yɛ Be Nɛɛ Mli
Maji amɛgbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ ni aje kpo yɛ afi 2026 teŋ lɛ tsɔɔ gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ ni tamɔ nɛɛ (shi jeee e-mli nɔŋmɔ fitsofitso) kɛha 2026/2027 El Niño sane lɛ. Be-kɛ-be nudaa kwɛmɔ kɛje AGRHYMET kɔɔyɔɔ he-maŋ-saajee kɛ WMO gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ hei ni awie he yɛ Juun 2026 mra-kpeemɔ mli kɛha UN nitsumɔhei kɛ dɔlɔi amɛ-nanemɛi lɛ tsɔɔ boklenyigbe kɛ boklɛŋigbe sroto-feemɔ wulu yɛ nudaa gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ mli yɛ equatorial Africa, kɛ nudaa ni baashi fe bɔ ni akpaɔ gbɛ yɛ Sahel hei babaoo ni dɔɔmɔji ni futu yɔɔ Gulf of Guinea fɛɛ nɔ.
Kɛha Ghana titri lɛ, oshara kadimɔ ni ma e-he nɔ mi fe fɛɛ tsɔɔ nudaa ni baashi fe bɔ ni akpaɔ gbɛ yɛ nudaa be bibioo (Sɛptɛmba–Nɔvɛmba teŋ) yɛ Ghana wuoyigbe, be ni blema nɔ lɛ El Niño eyeɔ West Africa nudaa nɔ waa lɛ. Yɛ koyigbe lɛ, he ni nudaa be kome pɛ ni jeɔ shishi kɛjeɔ Mɛi kɛyaashi Ɔktoba mli lɛ, kwɛmɔji tsɔɔ nudaa ni baagbe naa oyai fe bɔ ni akpaɔ gbɛ, nɔ ni baafee ngmɔ-dɔɔmɔ be lɛ kuku (kwɛ Mfoni 3). Kɛ́ gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ nɛɛ hi shi lɛ, nudaa be bibioo ni bɛ hewalɛ yɛ wuoyigbe kɛ nudaa be wulu ni agbe naa oyai yɛ koyigbe lɛ baakɛ lamɔ oshara diŋŋ baayɛ nyɔji ni miiba amɛmli.
Mfoni 3: Mfoni ni tsɔɔ nudaa oshara gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ ni kɛ 2026/27 El Niño yɔɔ kpaa. Kɔɔyɔɔ okadi bluu amɛ tsɔɔ nudaa gbɛ ni akpaɔ gbɛ yɛ Ghana Wuoyigbe kɛ Koyigbe kɛje blema aŋmabi mli ni okadi tsuru amɛ ji nudaa ni akpaɔ gbɛ yɛ eye-nɔ El Niño lɛ sɛɛ.
Mɔni He Woɔ Shishiu: Ngmɔ-nii, La, kɛ Maŋ Shika Shihilɛ
Nudaa ɲɔmɔ ni tamɔ nɛɛ baaba yɛ be ni wa waa mli kɛha Ghana maŋ shika shihilɛ ni damɔ ngmɔnitoo nɔ lɛ, ni ekɛ naagba baaba yɛ gbɛji babaoo anɔ.
Ngmɔ-nii baa kɛ niyenii hewalo: Kookoo, abele, kɛ ngmɔ-nii krokomɛi ni damɔ nudaa nɔ lɛ miisumɔ nu waa yɛ be ni amɛgbaɔ fɔfɔɔ kɛ be ni amɛwoɔ yibii lɛ. Ghana shihilɛ yɛ 1982/83 kɛ 2015/16 mli tsɔɔ kɛɛ nudaa ni agbe naa oyai kɛ dɔɔmɔ ni ya hiɛ baanyɛ gbe ngmɔ-nii yibii kɛ shikpɔŋ ni adɔɔ nɔ lɛ anɔ waa, ni ekɛ naagba baaba shia mli niyenii wromɔ kɛ jra-diɔlɔi bibii amɛ-nyɔmɔ-woi anɔ.
Koo-la-mɛmɔji: Baaji ni gbiŋ kɛ lamɔ bei ni kɛɔ woɔ koo-la-mɛmɔ oshara kɛ hiɛtserɛmɔ nɔ, titri lɛ yɛ transition kɛ savanna hei lɛ amɛmli kɛ yɛ kookoo ngmɔji amɛmli he ni tso-baaji ni gbiŋ kɛ ngmɔ-yibii agbɛ-nii feɔ la tso-bii — nɔ ni eye ebua diŋŋ kɛfite ngmɔji yɛ 1982/83 mli.
Shika shihilɛ nɔ eye-nɔji: Akɛ maŋ ni ji enyɔ ni nyɛɔ kookoo waa fe fɛɛ yɛ jeŋ mli lɛ, nudaa ɲɔmɔ wulu baanyɛ egbe export shika, ngmɔ-nyɛlɔi amɛ-nyɔmɔ-woi, kɛ jeŋ fɛɛ kookoo jra yɛ be kome mli. Nu-hewalɛ laha-mɔ ni baashi, nu-ha-mɔ ni baagbɔ yɛ ngmɔji amɛmli, kɛ niyenii jra ni baaya hiɛ ji oshara krokomɛi ni esa kɛɛ akwɛ yɛ sɛɛ.
Enɛɛmɛi eko-eko bɛ ni a-to he gbɛ fitsofitso kɛjɛ mra. El Niño tsakeɔ gbɛ-tsɔɔmɔ kɛyaa lamɔ shihilɛi mli yɛ bei nɛɛ amɛmli; ehaaa sane pɔtee ko nɔmimaa yɛ hei fɛɛ. Shi yɛ bɔ ni Ghana hiɛ aŋmabi yɛ blema saneji ni wa tamɔ nɛɛ a-he nɛɛ, nudaa be bibioo ni miiba yɛ wuoyigbe kɛ nudaa be wulu naagbee yɛ koyigbe lɛ esa kɛɛ ngmɔ-nyɛlɔi, nu-kwɛlɔi, kɛ oshara-to-he-gbɛ nitsumɔhei kwɛ amɛhe nɔ waa.
Ŋmalɔi: Frederick Otu-Larbi (frederick.otu-larbi@uenr.edu.gh)
Caleb Mensah (caleb.mensah@uenr.edu.gh)
Afi-woo: Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Energy and Natural Resources, UENR.
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